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A Safer Withdrawal Plan - Part Two
(Updated 4/8/09)
Preface Part one of this article discussed conventional withdrawal plans and their variants. Part two will discuss a safer withdrawal plan. A Different Focus The focus of conventional withdrawal plans start with a nest egg composed of stocks and bonds. Then looking at historical data, they take out a percentage that had a high probability of success (typically 4% initial withdrawal rate) over the retiree’s remaining lifetime (typically 30 years). The disadvantage of this approach is that stock and bond returns are volatile. The focus of a safer withdrawal plan looks to match cash flows to expenses. Essential expenses should be funded from predictable cash flows. After essential expenses are covered, the remaining assets from stocks and bonds can fund discretionary expenses. Sources of Predictable Cash Flows Common examples of predictable cash flows:
Social SecurityNote, it is preferable that the sources of predictable cash flows have cost of living adjustments (COLA’s) tied to inflation. (See note 1). Social security would meet this requirement. So would an inflation-adjusted pension, Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and inflation-adjusted immediate annuities. Non-COLA’d vehicles might work, too. However, you may have to start with a higher amount and then reinvest the excess. See note 2 for an example. The following chart summarizes a safer withdrawal plan:
This chart was created using my Safer_Plan Spreadsheet (xls)
The left side of the chart lists income sources. The right side of the chart lists expenses. To achieve a safer withdrawal plan, essential expenses are funded from reliable income sources. These are shown in blocks of light green color: social security, pension, TIPS ladder and an inflation-adjusted immediate annuity. Once essential expenses are covered, the remaining assets may be used to fund discretionary expenses. The next step is to assign specific dollar amounts to each of the blocks in the diagram. Those with a smaller nest egg may have less flexibility. In this circumstance, it might be necessary to convert a larger percentage of the nest egg to an immediate annuity in order to completely fund one’s essential expenses. These guidelines may optimize the plan:
A Detailed Example The following example describes one possible way to combine the elements which make up a safer withdrawal plan.
This chart was created using my Safer_Plan Spreadsheet (xls)
Ted is 65 years old and is planning his retirement, which might last 30 years. Ted recently accepted a buyout offer from his employer of 10 years. It will pay $2,000 a year and adjust for inflation. Ted is also eligible for social security, which will pay him $15,000 a year and adjust for inflation. Adding it up, Ted has reliable cash flow totaling $17,000. This falls short of Ted’s annual expenses of roughly $45,000. Ted would like to cover essential expenses including taxes, which run $40,000 annually, with reliable income. Fortunately, Ted has been a diligent saver and has accumulated $700,000. $200,000 sits in a tax-sheltered account. The remaining amount, $500,000, is in a taxable account. The gap between Ted’s essential expenses of $40,000 and the $17,000 reliable income coming from social security and pension (his buyout) is $23,000. Ted decides to build a TIPS ladder with the $200,000 in the tax-sheltered account. If real rates average 1.3%, the ladder might generate a reliable inflation-adjusted annual income of $8,000. See note 3 for details. And see note 4 for important caveats. Adding the $8,000 from the TIPS ladder to the $17,000 from social security and pension means Ted has $25,000 in reliable inflation-adjusted annual income. This is $15,000 shy of the $40,000 Ted would like to have in order to cover his essential expenses. So, Ted shops for an inflation-adjusted immediate annuity. Note 5 provides a list of insurance companies offering inflation-adjusted immediate annuities. At the time of this writing (March 25, 2009), Ted obtained a quote from Vanguard. The $15,000 gap Ted needs to fill to cover his essential expenses can be obtained for a lump-sum payment of $230,000. After entering that amount, Vanguard displayed a quote for $15,034.20. Ted has now established reliable income to meet his essential expenses.
Social Security ... $15,000 And the $270,000 that remains in the taxable account can be invested in a 50/50 mix of stock and bond mutual funds. Applying a 4% initial withdrawal rate on $270,000 could generate $10,800 annual income to meet Ted's discretionary expenses. Adding $10,800 to $40,034 would give Ted over $50,000 total annual income. This amount could then adjust higher for inflation in subsequent years. Using the Conventional Withdrawal Plan Let’s go back to the beginning and instead assume Ted will follow the conventional withdrawal plan. Ted has social security and pension income totaling $17,000 a year. He has a nest egg comprised of stock and bond mutual funds worth $700,000. Applying a 4% initial withdrawal rate could generate $28,000 annual income and adjust for inflation thereafter. Adding $17,000 to $28,000 could provide annual income of $45,000. This will cover Ted’s essential expenses of $40,000. Plus, $5,000 income is left to spend on discretionary items. This is summarized in the chart below:
This chart was created using my Safer_Plan Spreadsheet (xls)
Comparing Plans Both plans will likely deliver the $45,000 inflation-adjusted annual income for Ted to live on in retirement. The conventional plan has the advantage of leaving the full $700,000 nest egg intact. By contrast, if Ted pursues the safer withdrawal plan, he will gain $5,000 in additional inflation-adjusted annual income. This comes at a “cost” of giving up access to $230,000 if he buys the inflation-adjusted immediate annuity. Conclusion Conventional withdrawal plans hold volatile assets in the form of stock and bond mutual funds. Based on historical data, a 50/50 stocks/bonds portfolio lasted 30 years using a 4% initial withdrawal rate. However in several instances in the post-1950 period, portfolio values had fallen 25% during the first 10 years. Retirees who feel uncomfortable with that prospect may consider a safer withdrawal plan. The focus of a safer withdrawal plan aims to fund essential expenses with reliable income. Examples of reliable income include social security, pension, TIPS ladder and inflation-adjusted immediate annuities. After essential expenses are covered, the remaining portion of the nest egg is available to fund discretionary expenses. However, the retiree should understand the trade-offs involved in adopting a safer withdrawal plan. To make an informed decision, the reader is encouraged to perform further research. I have written two articles: one on Withdrawing from a TIPS Ladder and one on the Pros and Cons of Immediate Annuities. |
| Note 1 |
Even at a low average rate of inflation like 3%, your purchasing power will be cut in half some 24 years from now. What this means is that a dollar's worth of income today that doesn't rise with inflation, will be worth only 50 cents in 24 years, if we assume an average inflation rate of 3%.
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| Note 2 |
In this example, let’s say that a real (inflation-adjusted) immediate annuity compounds at a rate that averages 3%. In the first year, we receive an income payment of $1000. This payment is increases by 3% every year. If we add all the payments, at the end of 30 years, we would have received $47,575. If instead, we want to receive an equivalent amount from a nominal immediate annuity, we would have to receive $1586 every year for 30 years. ( $47,575 / 30 = $1585.84 )
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| Note 3 |
In its brief history, the real rate on 10-year TIPS has been mostly above 1.3 percent.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
So if we plug in 1.3% into my simple calculator, we see that we can take out an inflation-adjusted 4.0% initial withdrawal rate. ( $200,000 / $8,000 = 0.04 or 4.0% )
This table was created using my Simple TIPS Ladder Withdrawal Spreadsheet (xls) The above table assumes a retiree will have accumulated $200,000 in the year before retirement (Year -1). At the end of the year, the portfolio earned a real rate of interest of 1.3%. The amount earned was $2,600 ($200,000 x 1.3%). Also at the end of the year, a withdrawal of $8,000 was made. This amount will be used for the retiree’s first year’s living expenses in Year 1. This procedure repeats for the remaining 29 years. At the end of the 29th year, the last withdrawal of $8,000 is made. This last withdrawal of $8,000 will be used for the living expenses in Year 30. (Note that all numbers have been expressed in real terms.)
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| Note 4 |
The TIPS ladder example is an idealized one. There are two important caveats to keep in mind.
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| Note 5 |
I am aware of four insurance companies that offer fixed immediate annuities with inflation-adjusted payouts. American General offers them through Vanguard, the Principal Group through Elm Income Group and Vanguard, MEMBERS Immediate Annuities through CUNA Mutual Insurance Society, and Lincoln Financial Group. Vanguard account holders can obtain a quote online via Income Solutions. Principal only offers sample quotes through their website. Lincoln and MEMBERS do not display any quote information. Instructions for Vanguard account holders to obtain annuity quotes Sample Quotes from Principal Group MEMBERS Single Premium Immediate Annuity Brochure (pdf)
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